Diplomatic games in the sub-continent

Recent ban on Jamaat-ud-Dawa by the UN Security Council has been a very interesting development with China supporting the ban, and in fact supporting India’s position. In the past, China has vetoed earlier attempts to ban the Jamaat and always sided with Pakistan. Is China, now with it’s economical might openly taking the role of regional policeman? Is China looking for a more active role in South Asia along with the United States?

Had China vetoed this move once again it would have turned Pakistan as a battle field against China; somewhat similar battle ground as West enjoyed against Russia in Afghanistan. China has once again bailed out Pakistan and now controls more swaying power over Pakistani establishment. Pakistan has a strategic geographical location advantage as it is the corridor for the West to access Central Asia. However, now it can’t get done without prior Chinese approval. So it is going to be a tit for tat situation between China and USA. If China feels it’s supplies any where in the world are being pressurized by the West, they can always play the Pakistan card.

China’s other interest in Pakistan is mainly from the point of view of containing India’s influence in the Indian Ocean. China has established bases near Andaman & Nicobar Island and is in the process of creating one of the biggest ports for Pakistan at Gwadar in Baluchistan. (This is a deep sea port at the entrance of Persian Gulf on the Arabian Sea) China plans to connect this port with Karachi through a highway and then  to the Karakorum highway thus having a direct access to the Arabian Sea.  Pakistan, now economically crippled, welcomes all Chinese investments and China no longer needs to cajole Pakistan. Chinese influence has been growing in Africa and in no time will it establish ports in Africa making it a potent naval force in Asia and Africa, from South China sea across the Indian Ocean to the Arabian sea.

India is a large country however is strategically less significant. India will have to strive for good trade relations with China but will continue to counter China in strategic spheres. In the coming years, India will have to walk a tight rope in balancing the relations with the USA and China. India could not have won the UNSC ban on Jamaat had the US or China vetoed it.

Pakistan, by its nature, will go at any lengths not to be seen as geo-strategically useless. Because of its geographical location, Pakistan will continue to be a “rent” state, someone who charges a heavy price – cash, aid, weapons etc – for its location in the sub-continent. Pakistan would be happy being a pawn of the USA or China.

It took both India and Pakistan 60 years to reach where they are. Despite all the challenges related to multiple race, religion and ethnicity, India has reached a position that actually brings some amount of respect from people all across the world. On the other side, Pakistani leadership took all these 60 years to turn their country into a slave of the powerful, nothing more! Instead of investing time and effort to create a functional civil society nation Pakistan ended up creating human bombs. Patience within India and the Western countries is ending slowly given it’s open track record of aiding and abetting terrorism in entire South Asia and the world. Could there be covert re-thinking happening, probably redrawing boundaries of our neighbor nation? China would however like to see India and Pakistan at peace to avoid excessive US influence in the region and especially in India.

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5 Responses to "Diplomatic games in the sub-continent"

  1. Saiket Banerji   December 21, 2008 at 9:38 pm

    Pakistan is in big trouble as within its own country there is double speak to its people to believe in what their leaders are talking and taking back what they say within a week to the world. The Taliban are a creation of this very policy to support terror around the world 9/11 or 26/11 ,which will very soon destroy its creator,history has shown from medieval times that such destruction reverses a state to such a black hole that generations have to pass to see some sort of a ray of hope.India would have to be very alert and be ready to take over with its might whenever action is required because unfortunately we are in its neighborhood and are an target of mindless terrorists. After all a government does not exist in Pakistan, every one is a non state actor – the army, the terrorsits, Zaradari, taliban, ISI.

    Reply
  2. Saiket Banerji   December 21, 2008 at 9:38 pm

    Pakistan is in big trouble as within its own country there is double speak to its people to believe in what their leaders are talking and taking back what they say within a week to the world. The Taliban are a creation of this very policy to support terror around the world 9/11 or 26/11 ,which will very soon destroy its creator,history has shown from medieval times that such destruction reverses a state to such a black hole that generations have to pass to see some sort of a ray of hope.India would have to be very alert and be ready to take over with its might whenever action is required because unfortunately we are in its neighborhood and are an target of mindless terrorists. After all a government does not exist in Pakistan, every one is a non state actor – the army, the terrorsits, Zaradari, taliban, ISI.

    Reply
  3. Saiket Banerji   December 22, 2008 at 3:08 am

    Pakistan is in big trouble as within its own country there is double speak to its people to believe in what their leaders are talking and taking back what they say within a week to the world. The Taliban are a creation of this very policy to support terror around the world 9/11 or 26/11 ,which will very soon destroy its creator,history has shown from medieval times that such destruction reverses a state to such a black hole that generations have to pass to see some sort of a ray of hope.India would have to be very alert and be ready to take over with its might whenever action is required because unfortunately we are in its neighborhood and are an target of mindless terrorists. After all a government does not exist in Pakistan, every one is a non state actor – the army, the terrorsits, Zaradari, taliban, ISI.

    Reply
  4. Harsh Mehra   December 28, 2008 at 9:12 am

    Let’s see on many views.

    Pakistan move Army from Afghan Borders to Indian Borders:
    Simple, Islamabad is near to “War On Terror” zone, so I would not be surprised if tomorrow we hear that Taliban has occupied Pakistan from Afghan borders to Islamabad. Therefore US and allies can have another Iraq sort of war in Pakistan.

    Indians still seeking Diplomatic pressure from world:
    Indians have never waged a war in its history, so they are clean towards UNSC. Indians are frustrating Pakistanis to make a first strike so India will have UNSC, US, and India fighting against Pakistan.
    In case, Pakistan nukes on India, then the second strike will come from either one of the Big 5 (US, UK, China, Russia) therefore Indians will not and never get a chance to Nuke Pakistan, another clean sheet in UNSC.

    US recent visits / talks with India and Pakistan:
    US wants to sustain pressure until it moves its extra forces into Afghan border, so that there will be less dependency on Pakistani Army who are playing a double game on War on Terror. Therefore US can simply strike Afghan at borders and make an entry inside Pakistan as Taliban would have moved inside Islamabad by then. US will have full control of Pakistan just like Iraq, when Pakistanis are deeply involved with Indian Army.
    This will also stop Terrorists becoming a front-runners supporting Pakistan war on India.
    This will also help US presence in Asia, what they desperately wanted to monitor activities of China and Russia to some extent.

    I guess it’s all a game of dependencies to take control over Pakistan as its a nuke country with Terrorism, just to safeguard the nuke not going into Terrorists hands.

    Reply
  5. Harsh Mehra   December 28, 2008 at 2:42 pm

    Let’s see on many views.

    Pakistan move Army from Afghan Borders to Indian Borders:
    Simple, Islamabad is near to “War On Terror” zone, so I would not be surprised if tomorrow we hear that Taliban has occupied Pakistan from Afghan borders to Islamabad. Therefore US and allies can have another Iraq sort of war in Pakistan.

    Indians still seeking Diplomatic pressure from world:
    Indians have never waged a war in its history, so they are clean towards UNSC. Indians are frustrating Pakistanis to make a first strike so India will have UNSC, US, and India fighting against Pakistan.
    In case, Pakistan nukes on India, then the second strike will come from either one of the Big 5 (US, UK, China, Russia) therefore Indians will not and never get a chance to Nuke Pakistan, another clean sheet in UNSC.

    US recent visits / talks with India and Pakistan:
    US wants to sustain pressure until it moves its extra forces into Afghan border, so that there will be less dependency on Pakistani Army who are playing a double game on War on Terror. Therefore US can simply strike Afghan at borders and make an entry inside Pakistan as Taliban would have moved inside Islamabad by then. US will have full control of Pakistan just like Iraq, when Pakistanis are deeply involved with Indian Army.
    This will also stop Terrorists becoming a front-runners supporting Pakistan war on India.
    This will also help US presence in Asia, what they desperately wanted to monitor activities of China and Russia to some extent.

    I guess it’s all a game of dependencies to take control over Pakistan as its a nuke country with Terrorism, just to safeguard the nuke not going into Terrorists hands.

    Reply

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