A new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll has found no evidence, yet, of the kind of belated rush to President Trump among undecided voters that helped his unexpected victories in 2016.
When pollsters asked themselves how many missed signs Mr Trump would win the 2016 election, one of the factors they identified was the delayed swing toward him in the final days of the campaign.
A report by a professional association for opinion researchers found that about 13% of voters in Wisconsin, Florida, and Pennsylvania decided on their candidate selection in the week before the last election. These voters broke Trump by 30 percentage points in Wisconsin and 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, the study said, helping to achieve narrow wins.
This month, a Journal / NBC News poll looked for indications of a similar, late turn – and found a different picture from what it was in 2016. Indecisive voters appear to be tending equally toward both presidential candidates.
The study was not an official vote but rather a set of questions asked of 184 voters who responded to Journal / NBC News polls from June through September. In those initial interviews, they suggested that they were not making up their minds or that they only support an interim candidate.
The survey found that many of these voters have chosen a candidate in recent months, with the percentage of non-conformists dropping from 31% to 18%. And they passed almost equally to Mr.Trump and his rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. Overall, this group of voters preferred Mr. Biden over the President.
“Do we see evidence in these types of voters that there will be a break with Trump?” “Based on this limited sample of voters, we say” no, “said Bill McIntorf, a Republican pollster who worked on the study with Democrat Geoff Hurwett.
These voters have little connection to the political life of the nation and show lower levels of interest in elections compared to most other voter groups. Many of them are young people, political independents, or people who do not feel strongly associated with a party.
Voters in the study who supported Mr. Trump cited the economy as the reason for their decision, as well as taxes and a desire to reduce government. Those who supported Mr. Biden tend to cite the coronavirus pandemic, discontent with the events of the past four years and the need to unite the country.
Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster, said discontentment was the feeling it showed in most of the interviews. “There is no sense of hope, optimism, vision and direction,” he said.
He added: “If you hold the position, it is not good for there to be discontent, because you are the important person in that discontent.”
Republican pollster Mika Roberts said he was surprised that among the Republican voters interviewed, “there is literally no mention here regarding the Supreme Court and he made that a decisive factor… and no mention of peace agreements in the Middle East” – two final accomplishments. For the Trump administration. “That thing was so focused on the economy why these Republicans supported Trump.”