More than 58.7 million Americans have voted to date, according to a survey of election officials in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., by CNN, Edison Research, and Catalist.
In 2016, about 58.3 million ballot papers were cast before the election, including votes in three states by mail polls that year, according to CNN analysis. This early vote accounted for approximately 42% of all votes cast in the 2016 presidential election.
The detailed voter information comes from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics, and nonprofits that advocate for causes and give insight into who will vote before November.
Fifty-four percent Of these, 58.7 million votes The tournament actually comes from 16 states ranked competitively on CNN, which will play an important role in deciding who will win the presidency this year.
Of those states, Minnesota currently has the largest increase in early voting turnout compared to the last round, according to Catalyst data from both years in 14 major states.
By age, younger voters (ages 18 to 29) also vote significantly more and account for a greater share of the vote on a pre-election day than they did at about the same time four years ago in all major states where the information is available. .
In all 14 major states, voters under the age of 30 saw an increase in their share of early voting compared to this point in 2016.
Voters 30 or older still make up the vast majority of these early voters, but their share has decreased slightly since then four years ago. Older voters – those 65 and older – saw the biggest drop in their share of early voting.
Overall, the top three states with the largest increase in early voting turnout so far have all expanded access to mail or early voting this year.
New Jersey, which has seen the largest increase of more than nine times the number of votes cast this year as in 2016 at this time, mailed ballots to all eligible voters in the state for the 2020 elections. Delaware, which saw more than seven times the number of votes cast. It was made around this time four years ago, and Virginia, which has seen more than six times as much, allows any voter to vote by mail.
Here’s a look at the massive turnout in several of the major states that President Donald Trump won by the narrowest margins in 2016.
Trump won Florida by just over one percentage point in 2016, and seizing the Sunshine State again this year is critical to his re-election prospects.
While Florida Democrats maintain an advantage in pre-election turnout, Catalan data shows the gap is narrowing as more voters participate in early voting across the state.
Democrats now make up 43% of those early votes, while Republicans make up 36%. At this point in 2016, Republicans were roughly one point ahead of the pre-election turnout.
This massive turnout among Florida Democrats is reflected in recent polls about voter behavior in the Sunshine State.
A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS shows that about 35% of potential Florida voters say they have already cast their ballots. Of that group, 71% said they support former Vice President Joe Biden and 27% support Trump. Fifty-six percent of those who have yet to vote said they support Trump, while 40 percent said they support Biden.
However, that doesn’t predict the bottom line, as polls show Democrats across the country are more likely to vote before Election Day than Republicans.
North Carolina Democrats are also outperforming Republicans in their pre-election vote, but again, that margin is shrinking amid an increase in early voting in Tar Hill.
About 40% of the early votes analyzed by Catalis come from the Democrats compared to 30% of the Republicans so far. This is similar to the partisan breakdown of the pre-election vote at this point in 2016.
However, Republicans have narrowed the gap in their share of early voting in recent weeks.
In Pennsylvania – a major state that Trump won by less than one percentage point in 2016 – Democrats continue to have a significant advantage over Republicans in their share of the votes already cast, according to Catalan party data.
About 70% of the pre-election vote has come from Democrats so far, compared to about 20% of Republicans.
The 16 electoral votes in Michigan helped make Trump president four years ago when the state broke its six-election series by voting for the Democratic presidential candidate.
Voting turnout in Wolverine this century reached its peak in 2008 with more than 5 million votes for the presidency. The 2018 ballot procedure changed Michigan’s rules to allow anyone to vote by mail without an excuse, and polling returns this year more than three times what it was at this time four years ago, according to Catalyst data.
A look at these revenues by race shows that black voters make up 12% of the current vote, up from 8% at this time in the 2016 cycle. Democrats are hoping to increase turnout among black voters in areas such as Detroit as they strive to return Michigan to the Blue Column.
Democrats looking to expand the electoral map significantly focus on Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. The Biden campaign alone spent $ 14 million more on ads than the Trump campaign, according to CMAG.
The Democrats now lead the Republicans in their share of the vote cast so far, 42% to 34%, respectively. At this time four years ago, the then 41% Republican vote surpassed the 38% cast by Democrats, according to Catalyst data.
While this is good news for Democrats, less than a third of registered voters in the Grand Canyon state have no partisan affiliation, leaving ample room for both sides to increase voting in the final days of the campaign.