Phils 28-30 with two games left.
The only teams Velez can pick up in the NL field are Giants and Cardinals.
- Marlins snatched second place in NL East by defeating the Yankees in additional innings on Friday. They are 30-28 and have a head-to-head tiebreak on Velez.
- The Giants split with their headers, losing 6-5 in the first-leg of three games in Match 2. The best path for Velez to the playoffs is to beat the Giants by one match because they have the tiebreak. If the Giants go 2-0, the Velez is over. If the Giants tie 1-1, Velez should go 2-0. If the Giants go 0-2, the Velez must go at least 1-1.
- The Reds beat the Twins to make a playoff match. Can’t pass them down Phillies. Phils and the Reds finished 21-19 against their teams but the Reds had the next tiebreak. They are 12-8 in the last 20 division games compared to the 8-12 Phillies.
- Cardinals split head on double with their beer makers. Philly can only pick up the cards if they win the last two games, St. Louis losing their last two matches and then losing both games by double-headed on Monday against the Tigers. Those matches will only be played against the Tigers if they are important to determining the NL Stadium.
Phillies’ chances in the playoff have dropped to around 20%, according to Fangraphs. They were 87% on Sunday morning before a four-game losing streak began.
Here are the updated arrangements:
5. Cardinals: 29–27
6. Marlins: 30-28
7. Reds: 30-28
8. Giants: 29-29
Beer Makers: 28-30